| -3 | -2 | -1 | +1 | +2 | +3 |
| Absolutely Certain New | Moderately Certain New | Somewhat Certain New | Somewhat Certain Old | Moderately Certain Old | Absolutely Certain Old |
| Proportion of responses that are... | Old Items | New Items |
| At least -2 | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| At least -1 | 0.87 | 0.70 |
| At least +1 | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| At least +2 | 0.43 | 0.10 |
| At least +3 | 0.25 | 0.01 |
ROC curves are useful because theories of memory often make predictions about what ROC curves should look like. For example, single process signal detection models (i.e. familiarity only models) predict that ROC curves should look like this:
Notice that this curve intercepts at the points (0,0) and at (1,1).
Yonelinas's dual process model, however, predicts that ROC curves should
look like this:
Notice that the main difference is that the ROC curve intercepts above the point (0,0). As you go from the right part of the curve to the left part of the curve its telling you what happens as subjects are getting more and more careful in their responses. When you get to the Y-intercept (X=0), it represents a situation where subjects are being as careful as they could possibly be, so careful that they accept absolutely 0 lures. The Y-intercept on the ROC curve thus represents the proportion of "old" items that would be accepted even if subjects were being as careful as they could possibly be. The only one's you're likely to accept if you're being that careful are ones that you consciously recollect. And that's Yonelinas's conclusion. A non-zero Y-intercept indicates that there are two memory processes, and the value of the Y-intercept indicates how much recollection is occurring.